I’m surprised how many people can’t wait for self-driving cars. Crazier yet, how many people can’t wait for flying cars. I hate to be the one to burst their bubbles, but neither will be here (at least in terms of mass-market) soon. Of the two, self-driving will be sooner than flying, but we’re years away from either of these sitting in everybody’s garage.
Tesla has made the most “public’ ground with self-driving, yet at the same time proved just how far the technology has to come. Despite what people think, self-driving still requires the driver remain involved, not the romantic image have of such tech. The dream is you just plop into your car, tell the nav-system where you want to go, sit back and enjoy the ride, maybe read the newspaper or even sleep as the car rolls down the highway.
Before this becomes common practice, a whole lot of work needs to be done. There have been a number of serious crashes and even more near misses. The idea of an autonomous vehicle mixing with conventionally driven cars is scary. If you haven’t driven on the San Diego (405) freeway in Southern California lately, you’re in for a shock. The level of rudeness and selfish behavior is amazing. There’s nothing more dangerous than a 30-something driving while believing they own the road and you’re not entitled to use any of it. Now add to that image autonomous cars trying to merge onto the freeway with these folks — GOOD LUCK.
Most experts say we’re 15 years out for mass market self-driving vehicles. When the time comes, it’s going to be a very messy transition. However, where big progress is being made is with commercial big rigs. A special road has been built for companies to develop big rigs and their systems, and it shows great promise so far. If you’re asking yourself "Why bother?" it’s simple: commercial big rig drivers are required by law to only drive so many hours before taking a measured break of around 8 hours. A non-driver rig can run as far and long as its diesel tanks will permit.
As for flying cars, don’t hold your breath. Though prototypes are currently flying and being tested, they’re doing so from airports...not on public roads. The FAA is going to have to be involved and there will need to be rules, lots of rules. Consider too that flying cars will still be required to pass DOT crash test laws and EPA rules. Not an easy thing to do with a regular automobile, much less one with wings, propellers and vertical stability controls. In shorter, "The Jetsons" moment is a long time away.
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